Evaluating the schemes and characteristics of models that are applied in studying the mechanism of how climate change would impact air pollution is key to providing a better understanding of the current studies and supporting modeling research in the future. This study reviews existing modeling studies on the topic “climate change impact on air pollution” based on literature investigation. Three types of modeling studies at different spatial scales – global and regional – are identified, and the characteristics and applicability of different research methods are compared. Furthermore, using data from the CMIP5 climate model intercomparison project and the atmospheric chemical transport model WRF-Chem, the impacts of future changes in meteorology and pollutant emissions in the context of climate change on near-surface summertime O₃ concentration in China in 2050 are studied, with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Yangtze River Delta region, and Pearl River Delta region selected as representatives for analysis. Results show that under the RCP8.5 climate change and emission pathway, both meteorological and emission changes will impose significant effects on summer ozone concentrations in China by the middle of this century. In most regions of China, changes in emissions would have a significant influence on ozone concentration, but the meteorological field near the East China Sea would also significantly affect future ozone pollution. In addition, a certain degree of interaction between the two factors exists.

This study evaluates the energy structure change and co-benefits in air pollution improvement in the transportation sector of China in line with the 2oC and 1.5oC targets based on an energy system optimization model IMED|TEC. The results show that under 2oC and 1.5oC targets in 2050, the energy consumption would decrease by 12% and 33% compared to the reference scenario. The energy mix would shift from traditional petroleum to cleaner biomass and even electricity or hydrogen energy. Under the 2oC scenario, biomass energy would account for 35% of the total energy consumption, whereas under 1.5oC scenario, hydrogen and electricity would account for about 67% of total energy consumption. Decarbonization of China’s transportation sector can bring significant air quality improvement. Under the 2oC scenario, CO2 emissions will be reduced by 38% in 2050, associated with reductions of NO_x, SO₂ and PM_2.5 emissions by 35%, 34% and 38%, respectively. Under the 1.5oC scenario, the amount of pollutant emission reduction would be twice that at 2oC. However, emissions reduction rates would be quite limited for the aviation and waterway transportation sectors.